What guarantees does the 100-year agreement with the UK provide for Ukraine?

On January 16, Ukraine signed an unprecedented 100-year Partnership Agreement with the United Kingdom, based on the security agreement signed a year ago on January 12, 2024. In fact, the new agreement expands security cooperation between Kyiv and London and extends it from a ten-year to a century-long period.

The new document covers cooperation in security and defense, maritime affairs, the economy, energy, justice (including international justice), countering disinformation, etc.

Almost all the specifics on security issues (and not only) were recorded in a separate bilateral document called the Declaration on 100-year Partnership. This document is politically linked to the main agreement but not legally binding or ratifiable. It is likely a political declaration of the leaders, not an international agreement.

The agreement itself is subject to ratification. So, as stated in the declaration (not the body of the agreement), the United Kingdom promises to provide Ukraine with at least £3 billion in military assistance annually until 2030-31.

Also among the UK’s political commitments outlined in the declaration is to strengthen the coalition of fighter jets for Ukraine. To this end, London promises to invest more in language training for Ukrainian specialists and “help partners increase the number of F-16s for Ukraine.” The British Air Force does not have these fighters in service, so the form of this assistance remains unspecified.

In addition, Ukraine and the UK agreed to “deepen cooperation” on long-range weapons, air defense, and other military equipment.

The most intriguing provision, which could have caused concern in Russia, is that Britain does not rule out the deployment of military bases in Ukraine, although this sounds like a purely theoretical possibility.

The 100-year Partnership Agreement also provides for stronger defense cooperation.

The priorities include not only the joint production of weapons and ammunition but also the creation of joint defense enterprises and innovations, increasing the production capacity of the defense industry in Ukraine, etc.

As part of the Maritime Capabilities Coalition, the UK also pledged to help Ukraine build a balanced maritime force.

The declaration also defines mutual security obligations: in the event of a third-country attack, urgent consultations are to be held within 24 hours. In addition, the joint declaration sets out the creation of flexible rapid response mechanisms. This initiative includes the creation and joint use of military formations and other specialized structures for mutual defense.

The agreement itself also refers to NATO. For example, the United Kingdom clearly recognizes in the agreement that the best guarantee of security for Ukraine is NATO membership and that London supports Ukraine’s irreversible path to membership in the Alliance and declares in the title of one of the articles the goal of reaching consensus on Ukraine’s membership in NATO.