The EU is preparing for a possible scenario in which Hungary blocks the extension of anti-Russian sanctions, and the sanctions packages against Russia for its war in Ukraine will cease to be effective on March 16.
The EU plans to extend individual restrictive measures, including restrictions on entry to the EU for certain citizens and asset freezes for individuals and businesses. If the current sanctions are not extended, they will cease to apply on March 16, 2025.
EU sanctions packages on Russia expire on March 16
Today, on March 12, the EU ambassadors met to discuss the extension of sanctions against Russia, and EU countries are trying to convince Hungary to support this decision. The next meeting of ambassadors is scheduled for Friday, March 14, on the eve of the deadline to extend individual sanctions packages against Russians and Russian businesses for the invasion and war against Ukraine.
If the March 16 deadline is missed, it will legally mean that more than 2,400 sanctioned Russian individuals and businesses will be exempt from the restrictions imposed by the European Union at one point.
Failure to extend the sanctions could actually unfreeze up to 30% of the total frozen assets of the Russian Federation. According to estimates, it could be about €60 billion of unfrozen funds or more.
Hungary is blocking sanctions extension
Hungary is opposed to the sanctions extension. It’s not the first time that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has blocked the process of agreeing on sanctions against Russia at the preparatory stage, but Brussels does not rule out that Hungary may go further this time. Orban is known for pro-Russia and anti-EU statements, as well as for blocking EU’s decisions on sanctions against Russia and military aid for Ukraine.
Specifically, unlike in past cases, Hungary has not voiced significant demands from the EU, thereby reducing the scope for negotiations. In addition, Hungary’s blocking is taking place under Trump’s presidency, with whom Orbán has excellent relations, and the US president has focused his efforts on improving relations with the Kremlin and putting pressure on Ukraine and Russia to end the war.
Some sources say that Hungary, together with Slovakia, attempts to achieve the delisting from the restrictions for some influential Russian figures.
Among the sanctions against Russia in this package is the freezing of tens of billions of euros in the assets of Russian companies and organizations, as well as those of politicians, businessmen, officials, the military, and their businesses.
If Hungary vetoes the package and the EU fails to extend sanctions by the deadline, this money may leave the EU. Then Ukraine will lose the opportunity to use it to rebuild after the war and purchase weapons to counter Russian aggression.
The EU needs to extend sanctions packages every six months
The EU sanctions regime against Russia is composed of two blocks that date back to 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea. After the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the EU continued to supplement and strengthen the 2014 sanctions.
Despite the requirement to extend the EU sanctions every six months, a written procedure typically dictates this decision without discussion or objection. However, in 2025, events did not unfold as planned. Previous discussions among EU member state ambassadors in Brussels failed to reach unanimity.
The biggest issue is that the frozen assets, which belong to Russian ruler Putin and dozens of Russian oligarchs, risk falling back into the hands of their Russian “owners,” who can easily move them out of Europe.
Currently, the vast majority of Russian assets in the form of securities and cash are frozen in the European Union: approximately 210 billion euros. This amount includes the money of the oligarchs. Estimates by Russian sources also indicate that funds not belonging to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation account for about a third of the funds frozen in the EU. This implies that we could potentially be discussing approximately 60 billion euros.
Proceeds from frozen Russian assets cover aid to Ukraine
European assistance programs for Ukraine are also jeopardized. The proceeds from frozen Russian assets are set to cover the loans provided by the Group of Seven countries to Ukraine. And if the failure of sanctions leads to the unfreezing of a third of the assets, there will be less income. Still, the aid is in jeopardy due to Hungary’s refusal to support the extension of sanctions.
However, even in a negative scenario, there will be a certain time lag to reach a belated agreement with Hungary on the extension of sanctions. The bureaucracy in Brussels and the numerous formal procedures required to grant Russians access to frozen funds will provide assistance.
If Hungary continues to block the extension of sanctions until March 15, inclusive, it will be announced that the discussion of the final decision will be put on the agenda of the EU Council at the level of foreign ministers, which will take place on Monday, March 17. And there, the ministers of the 26 EU states will study how to put pressure on Hungary to agree to extend the sanctions.
Currently, European countries that support maintaining economic pressure on Russia can use every opportunity to find tools to persuade Hungary and make a sanctions decision in time.
This danger should not exist because Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has not stopped, and there is no reason to ease the pressure on those responsible for it, including war crimes. But the problem is that the extension of the sanctions regime requires unanimous approval by all 27 EU member states, including Hungary.
