A new UNHCR study projects that more than half of Ukrainian refugees would remain in Europe through 2029 even under a fragile peace deal, as Russia’s destruction of Ukrainian cities makes return impossible for millions.
Currently around 5.2 million Ukrainians are registered as refugees across Europe, according to the UN Refugee Agency, with a further 3.7 million internally displaced inside Ukraine. The new UNHCR scenario study models three possible futures and finds that even the most optimistic realistic outcome leaves a majority of refugees abroad for years to come.
Three Scenarios, Three Futures
Under the “fragile peace with concessions” scenario, in which Russia retains de facto control over occupied territories, investment in Ukrainian-controlled areas remains at medium to high levels, and the EU’s Temporary Protection Directive expires as planned in March 2027, an estimated 2.9 million refugees, or 56% of the current total, would still be in Europe by the end of 2029. Under the status quo scenario, where Russian aggression continues, the figure rises to 5.16 million, or 99% of current refugees, still present in Europe by 2029. Only a scenario involving Ukraine’s full victory and the return of occupied territories by the end of this year would bring the number down significantly, to around 32% of the current total.
UNHCR stressed that these are not predictions but behavioural models based on survey data and likely responses to different future conditions.
Why Return Remains Out of Reach
The numbers reflect a stark reality on the ground. Russia’s campaign of deliberate infrastructure destruction has made return physically impossible for millions. According to a joint assessment by the World Bank, the UN, the European Commission and the Ukrainian government released in February 2026, direct war damage to Ukraine reached over $195 billion by the end of 2025, with housing the single most affected sector at $61.6 billion. As of December 2025, 14% of Ukraine’s entire housing stock had been damaged or destroyed, affecting over three million households.
The Atlantic Council has described this as a deliberate strategic shift: with Russian forces unable to achieve meaningful battlefield breakthroughs, Russia launched around 55,000 kamikaze drones at Ukrainian targets in 2025 alone, a fivefold increase from the previous year, targeting energy networks, heating systems and transport routes in an explicit attempt to make the country unlivable. The UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission reported that 2025 was the deadliest year for Ukrainian civilians since 2022, with 2,514 killed and 12,142 injured, a 31% rise from 2024.
The Protection Status Question
The study’s scenarios also intersect with an unresolved EU policy question. The Temporary Protection Directive, activated in March 2022, currently runs until March 4, 2027. Eurostat data shows that as of the end of March 2026, 4.33 million Ukrainian nationals were under temporary protection in the EU, with Germany hosting the largest share at 1.27 million, followed by Poland at 961,000 and Czechia at 379,000. The European Commission is currently in discussions with member states about what happens after March 2027, with options ranging from full termination of the scheme to a further one-year extension.
The UNHCR study’s message is unambiguous: under any scenario short of Ukrainian military victory, Europe will remain home to millions of Ukrainians for years. The obstacles to their return are not administrative but physical and existential, built from rubble, destroyed heating systems and cities that no longer exist in the form their residents left them.
