NATO names Russia’s key allies in its war in Ukraine, and identifies the “decisive factor”

In the Declaration of the Washington Summit, the North Atlantic Alliance outlined the list of countries that it considers Russia’s allies in its war against Ukraine. NATO is particularly concerned about China’s space and nuclear programs, the declaration reads.

However, this is not the only country that NATO has included in its declaration.

Who did NATO name as Russia’s main allies in the war against Ukraine?

First of all, the document mentioned Belarus. It noted that it supports this war by providing access to its territory and infrastructure. The deepening political and military integration of Russia and Belarus, including the deployment of advanced Russian troops in Belarus, has negative consequences for regional stability and Alliance defense.

Furthermore, it was mentioned that North Korea and Iran are fueling Russia’s aggressive war against Ukraine by providing Russia with munitions and drones.

The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) and Iran are fuelling Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine by providing direct military support to Russia, such as munitions and uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs), which seriously impacts Euro-Atlantic security and undermines the global non-proliferation regime. 

The Declaration of the NATO Washington Summit

“We strongly condemn the DPRK’s export of artillery shells and ballistic missiles, which violates numerous UN Security Council resolutions, and note with great concern the deepening ties between the DPRK and Russia,” the NATO Declaration reads.

At the same time, the Alliance pointed to China as a “decisive factor in Russia’s war against Ukraine” because of its so-called “boundless” partnership and large-scale support for Russia’s defense industry, in particular through the transfer of dual-use materials such as weapons components, equipment, and raw materials that serve as resources for Russia’s defense sector and weapons production.

The Alliance called on China to cease providing any components or political support for Russia’s military efforts.

At the same time, NATO states that China poses systemic challenges to Euro-Atlantic security through its ongoing malicious cyber and hybrid activities. That is, China’s confrontation with the Alliance manifests outside the context of Russia’s war against Ukraine.

The PRC has become a decisive enabler of Russia’s war against Ukraine through its so-called “no limits” partnership and its large-scale support for Russia’s defence industrial base.  This increases the threat Russia poses to its neighbours and to Euro-Atlantic security. 

The Declaration of the NATO Washington Summit

The Declaration states that the Alliance is particularly concerned about the development of China’s space capabilities and the expansion of its nuclear arsenal.

Russian reaction

In response to the NATO declaration, a Russian propaganda outlet, Ria-Novosti, published an article that quoted Russian officials’ statements on this matter. Traditionally, they deny everything.

The Russian Ambassador to Pyongyang, Alexander Matsegora, said that there is no question of the DPRK supplying munitions to Russia. “North Korea is actually in a pre-war situation; they need the arsenals themselves,” he claimed. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in an interview with RIA Novosti that the West’s claims about Iran’s alleged supply of drones to Russia remain unsubstantiated.

However, the evidence in Ukraine and international experts’ conclusions show the opposite. In June, the UN experts stated they “irrefutably” established that ballistic missile remnants found in Ukraine came from North Korea, AP reported.

The Ukrainian government said Russia has been using Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones in the war since September 2022. Iran’s government acknowledged it supplied “a small number” of drones to Russia before the war.

Ukraine’s military showed evidence that at least some of the Iranian-made drones used by Russia in its war were probably supplied after Moscow’s full-scale invasion in February, as reported by the Guardian. Over the last two years Russian launched multiple massive air attacks at Ukraine, involving each time dozens of Shahed drones.

Criticism of China for components supplies to Russia

In April, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken criticized China for supporting Russia’s defense industry, saying that Beijing is now the main supplier of critical components for the war of aggression that Russia is waging against Ukraine.

Blinken stated that the Chinese cannot “have it both ways” by seeking better relations with Europe while supplying goods that pose what he called “the greatest challenge to European security since the end of the Cold War.”

In June, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that there should be consequences for China for supporting Russia in the war against Ukraine, BBC reported. Stoltenberg said China was “sharing a lot of technologies, micro-electronics, which are key for Russia to build missiles, weapons they use against Ukraine”.

Also, in April, Executive Vice President of the European Commission, Valdis Dombrovskis, stated that the EU is concerned that China may become increasingly confident in its ability to supply Russia with parts needed to manufacture weapons if the West’s determination to resist Russia’s war in Ukraine wanes, Euractiv reported.

According to a recent analysis by chip specialist Chris Miller, 88% of the chips Russia purchased in the first half of 2023—measured in dollars—came from Chinese deliveries. It stated that “in the first half of 2023, shipments from China accounted for 88% of the chips Russia acquired, measured by dollar value,” indicating that “China is by far the most significant supplier of chips for Russia.”

A research pointed that since 2022, Russian imports from the world have decreased by about 38,8% because of the implemented sanctions. However, China kept its exports of electronics to Russia nearly at the pre-war level, while many countries stopped doing so, and Moscow’s imports dropped, according to the trademap.org data.

Although Russia’s total imports from China have fallen, their percentage share has increased. China held about 60% of the Russian electronics market in 2022. China accounted for over $13 billion of electronic exports to Russia in 2022, when Putin’s war was already going on.

According to another research, since the invasion of Ukraine, China has increased its exports of modern machine tools to Russia, used in the military industry. Chinese vendors now account for most shipments of ‘computer numerical control’ gadgets used by Moscow’s defense industry.

These machine tools are crucial to the military industry in Moscow. They enable the quick manufacturing of complicated metal and other hard material components, making them important for defense production.

Beijing claims that it does not provide lethal weapons to Moscow, yet it opposes sanctions. China also provides consumer products, autos, machinery, electricity, and other items to sanctioned Russia. Last October, China’s President Xi Jinping reminded Vladimir Putin that the two countries’ annual trade had hit a “historic high” of over $200 billion.

Experts say it will be hard to stop Russia’s war in Ukraine and halt Russia’s weaponry production without preventing China from providing advanced machine tools to Moscow. If China ceases to supply electronics to Moscow, Russia will regress to its post-Soviet level in the industry, its military industry will suffer a great impact, and it will not be able to pursue its war in Ukraine.

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