On February 26, the trial of Milorad Dodik, a consistent and aggressive separatist, Serbian nationalist, and pro-Russian politician, finally ended with a verdict.
Milorad Dodik is the president of Republika Srpska (the Serbian part of Bosnia and Herzegovina) and probably the most pro-Putin politician in Europe.
For many years, Dodik’s activities were aimed at separatism and the actual destruction of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a single state. This action would clearly benefit Russia, as it would result in another painful conflict near the EU’s borders.
According to the Bosnian Criminal Code, such an offense can result in up to five years in prison. The Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina sentenced Dodik to one year in prison and banned him from holding political office for six years.
This decision has not yet entered into force, as it can still be appealed. However, it is already clear that this sentence has had a significant impact on political processes in the Balkans.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, and even certain conservative circles within the US Republican Party have come to Dodik’s defense.
At the same time, Dodik is preparing not only a court appeal but also several laws that the Republika Srpska National Assembly may urgently adopt. Specifically, these laws pertain to the actual separation of Republika Srpska from Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The leader of the Bosnian Serbs was accused of threats and actions aimed at destabilizing Bosnia and Herzegovina, which could lead to the Republika Srpska’s secession from the unified state. One cannot rule out the possibility of a non-peaceful secession process.
Dodik made efforts to make separatism and the threat of a split in Bosnia and Herzegovina permanent. Membership in the European Union and NATO was becoming increasingly remote, which worried many politicians in the country, and in Brussels, it caused concern about a new conflict in the Balkans.
According to the Dayton Peace Accords, the highest power in Bosnia and Herzegovina belongs to the High Representative for the country, who is entitled to suspend legislative decisions and remove from office government officials of any rank, as well as politicians.
However, in 2023, Dodik, with the support of Russia, tried to solve this “issue.”. On June 26, the Republika Srpska National Assembly passed a law to stop publishing decisions from the Office of the High Representative in the official government courier of the Republika Srpska.
In addition, an act was passed to not recognize Christian Schmidt as the high representative in Bosnia and to ban him from cooperating and publishing decisions in the local “government courier.” From the perspective of national legislation, these actions qualified as criminal offenses, and therefore Schmidt canceled them.
However, the MPs from Republika Srpska passed another “law” on the non-application of the decisions of the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina in Republika Srpska, which was another step towards the secession from Bosnia. Despite Schmidt’s ban, the Republika Srpska government courier published both laws.
The incident was followed by the recall of Serbs from Bosnia’s state bodies and the blocking of their operations, and a threat to withdraw Serb units from the country’s armed forces. Dodik violated several regulations and committed a criminal act.
The justice system responded to the violations, and after investigating the case in August 2023, the Bosnian Prosecutor’s Office filed charges against two people—Dodik and the acting director of the RS government courier, Milos Lukic. The trial of the Bosnian Serb leader began in February 2024.
Prosecutor Nedim Čosić asked the court to sentence Dodik to a prison term of up to five years and impose a ten-year ban on political activity, which is the maximum punishment for such charges.
The defense tried in every possible way to delay the trial indefinitely. Realizing the inevitability of a guilty verdict, Milorad Dodik tried to use all his political connections.
On the eve of the approval of the above-mentioned “laws,” Dodik visited Moscow. And after that visit, he went to Belgrade, where he spoke at a rally with President Vucic.
The Serbian president remains Dodik’s closest friend—two Serbs, two leaders of the “Serbian world,” both dreaming of a united “greater Serbia.” Dodik does not hide his desire to unite with Serbia, and Vucic has made efforts to protect Dodik. On the eve of the process, the Serbian president stated that he “hopes that the decision will be reasonable, because otherwise I am afraid that we will all have big problems…”
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, also known for pro-Kremlin views and moves, also made statements. He said that he hoped for “the termination of Dodik’s punishment,” calling the case against him a “political hunt.” By the way, it is precisely because of Orban’s veto that Dodik, who is under US sanctions, has not been subject to EU sanctions.
On the eve of the verdict, an American politician, Rudy Giuliani, a former adviser to Donald Trump and his friend, suddenly appeared in Republika Srpska. In this way, he showed that there are circles around the US president that will be dissatisfied with Dodik’s conviction.
Under such pressure, Judge Sena Uzunovic eventually approved a sentence for Dodik, albeit less than the prosecutor’s office had demanded. Significantly, Dodik and his lawyers did not even attend the announcement of the verdict.
“As of today, this Bosnia and Herzegovina no longer exists,” is how Milorad Dodik reacted to the verdict in his typical manner.
The National Assembly and the Republika Srpska Government began to work towards secession, an initiative to non-recognize the trial of Dodik and to ban the activities of the Bosnian prosecutor’s office and special services in the territory of Republika Srpska.
These are steps toward dismantling Bosnia and Herzegovina as a state. In such circumstances, the EU and High Representative Christian Schmidt will have to act decisively. The U.S. State Department also supported Dodik’s sentence.
However, there is no expected sharp reaction from Russia to this verdict. Either Russia is too busy negotiating with Donald Trump to get out of the devastating war in Ukraine, or it is ready to abandon its ally, as it did with Syrian dictator Assad. After all, due to the exhausting failed war against Ukraine, Moscow no longer has the resources to control the situation in other countries where it has political allies.
If the appeal confirms Dodik’s sentence, then what can we expect—a new conflict in the Balkans or the calm neutralization of an agent of Russian influence and victory over separatism?
