Sweden’s Security Risks Grow as Russian Threat Reaches New Levels

Sweden’s Security Service says Russia’s threat is escalating, with covert operations and infrastructure surveillance now at the forefront.

Sweden’s domestic intelligence agency Säpo presented its annual security report on March 18, outlining a security environment that has continued to deteriorate. Russia remains the country’s primary threat actor — but the nature of that threat has evolved. According to the agency, Moscow has grown more calculated and concealed in its approach, combining offensive intelligence work with hidden propaganda and influence campaigns designed to fly under the radar.

Russia Scouts Swedish Infrastructure for Potential Sabotage

As SVT reports, one of the most alarming findings in this year’s report is that Russian intelligence has been systematically collecting data on critical Swedish infrastructure — activity that Säpo assesses as preparation for future sabotage operations. The agency’s head of operations, Fredrik Hallström, confirmed that Russian handlers had specifically tasked agents with surveilling and documenting protected sites across the country.

“We know that Russia has tasked agents with mapping and documenting protected sites in Sweden,” Hallström said at a press conference. “We have not seen concrete acts of physical sabotage against critical infrastructure, but we have seen attempts at destructive cyberattacks.”

Over the past year, Säpo investigated hundreds of suspicious incidents. While none have been conclusively tied to state-sponsored physical sabotage by a foreign power, the volume of suspected activity reflects what the agency describes as an extensive and persistent Russian intelligence presence on Swedish soil.

Covert Influence Operations and a Limitless Appetite for Intelligence

As United24 Media reports, Säpo chief Charlotte von Essen stressed the shift in Russian tactics—away from open provocations and toward methods that are harder to detect and attribute.

“This development is characterised by more offensive actions by Russia combined with hidden influence activities,” von Essen said.

The agency’s assessment concludes that Russia’s need to acquire information — to fuel its military machine and close technological gaps — is effectively without limit. This, Säpo warns, makes the intelligence threat not just persistent but structurally embedded: as long as the war continues and Western support for Ukraine holds, Russia’s incentive to gather intelligence on countries like Sweden will only grow.

Säpo’s head of operations Fredrik Hallström went further, warning that the definition of terrorism itself needs to expand to account for state actors operating through proxies and deniable networks.

“We must have a broader perspective on what constitutes terrorism. State-sponsored deniable terrorism must be treated the same way as we treat the terrorist threat from ISIS and al-Qaeda,” Hallström said.

Societal Resilience and Business Awareness

Beyond state-level threats, Säpo emphasised the role of the private sector and civil society in maintaining security. Carolina Björnsdotter Paasikivi, head of the security department, urged businesses to scrutinise who they work with.

“Operators need to be aware of who they are dealing with and who they do business with,” she said. “Säpo has acted proactively, and in doing so has prevented foreign powers and serious organised crime from gaining access to security-sensitive operations.”

Nordic Nations Close Ranks

The Säpo report lands amid accelerating security cooperation across the Nordic region. As United24 Media reports, Canada and five Nordic countries — Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, and Iceland — agreed in Oslo to expand collaboration on Arctic security, defence production, resilient infrastructure, critical minerals, artificial intelligence, satellite and space technologies, and ongoing support for Ukraine. The joint statement by the prime ministers described the move as a direct response to rising geopolitical tensions and growing risks in the High North.

On the military side, NATO’s Cold Response 26 exercises, launched on March 9, are currently running across northern Finland, Norway, and Sweden. The drills — led by Norway and expected to last around two weeks — involve approximately 25,000 troops from 14 NATO member states and represent one of the largest alliance exercises in the region in recent years.